Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is at a critical juncture as it gears up to announce its first-quarter 2025 earnings after the market closes on May 5. The company’s ability to meet or surpass the $6 billion profit forecast carries significant implications for the immediate trajectory of its stock, which is currently trading at $10.18, down marginally for the day.
Analysts on Wall Street have set modest expectations for Ford’s Q1 results. The consensus estimates point to earnings per share of $0.02, a substantial drop from $0.49 a year earlier, alongside revenue of around $35.8 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year decline. These subdued projections stem from various challenges, including reduced vehicle volumes, a 20% production cut, and heightened expenses linked to new plant launches and the ongoing electric vehicle (EV) transition.
The scrutiny will intensify on Ford’s performance across its three primary business segments:
- Ford Blue (ICE and hybrids): Expected to yield $17.6 billion in revenue, down by 19% from the previous year, with EBIT likely to decrease to $275 million from $905 million.
- Model e (EVs): Estimated to bring in $1.5 billion in revenue, a substantial increase from $115 million in the prior year, but still anticipated to report a loss of $1.17 billion before interest and taxes.
- Ford Pro (commercial): Foreseen revenue of $16.2 billion, down 10% year-over-year, with EBIT expected to decline to $1.5 billion from $3 billion.
Although retail sales saw a 5% uptick in the quarter, overall vehicle sales dipped by 1.3%, primarily due to reduced rental fleet sales and the discontinuation of select models. Notably, electrified vehicle sales surged by 25.5%, reflecting Ford’s aggressive foray into the EV market.
Ford’s management has indicated a breakeven adjusted EBITDA for Q1, a significant decrease from $2.7 billion in the same period last year. For the full year, the company anticipates adjusted EBIT in the range of $7.0 to $8.5 billion, with free cash flow projected to shrink to $3.5–$4.5 billion. The Model e division alone is expected to incur losses of $5.0–$5.5 billion in 2025, highlighting the substantial costs associated with Ford’s electrification strategy.
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Market sentiment among analysts remains cautious, with many major firms maintaining neutral or underperform ratings and assigning price targets between $9 and $10. Despite the hurdles, Ford’s modest share price and appealing dividend yield continue to attract value investors.
The company’s ability to meet the $6 billion profit forecast and execute its Ford+ growth strategy, which seeks to strike a balance between EV investments and core ICE and commercial strengths, holds the key to its stock performance. Any shortfall in earnings or guidance could trigger further declines, while surpassing expectations may help bolster investor confidence in Ford’s turnaround narrative.
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